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December 28, 2022

NYY⇄ATL

unsettledToo soon to call — players still accruing.
NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$2.4M net +0.1
received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.5 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2023 odds 4% → 4% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Indigo DiazP·24y·R/R
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#817 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
Caleb Durbin3B·23y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#427 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net −$2.4M net -0.1
received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $9M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2023 odds 98% → 98% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Lucas LuetgeP·36y·L/L
+$3.1M+$3.1M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 1.1/yr over 1.7 season
Talent
0.72/yr blended
Horizon
1.1 control yr × 0.97 age decline
Fan verdict — who overpaid?

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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