MIL⇄NYM

MILMIL Sal Bando net −$13.6M net +0.1

received −$1.6M−$3.2M ± $15M expected surplus · −$13.6M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1997 odds 4% → 4% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pete HarnischP·30y·B/R

−$1.8M−$2.9M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$13.6M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.05/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Joe McIlvaine net +$13.6M net -0.1

received +$0.0M−$0.8M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1997 odds 18% → 17% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Donnie MooreP·43y·L/R

+$0.0M−$0.7M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.