COL⇄MIL

COLCOL Gary Hughes net +$18.4M net +0.9

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2000 odds 9% → 10% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike MyersP·31y·L/L

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Sal Bando net −$18.4M net -0.9

received −$6.4M−$6.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$16.0M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Curt LeskanicP·32y·R/R

−$6.3M−$6.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$16.0M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.