NYM⇄COL

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$15.2M net +1.2

received +$0.8M−$4.0M ± $22M expected surplus · −$29.6M realized received 3.4 ± 3 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1999 odds 67% → 73% (+6.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chuck McElroyP·31y·L/L

+$2.8M−$1.6M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.88/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Darryl HamiltonOF·34y·L/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$26.4M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.58/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Gary Hughes net +$15.2M net -1.2

received +$18.4M+$17.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$14.4M realized received 4.2 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 1999 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian McRaeOF·31y·B/R

+$14.4M+$13.7M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.94/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Rigo BeltránP·29y·L/L

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#675 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Tom Johnson

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.