OAK⇄ANA

OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net +$5.6M net +0.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1995 odds 4% → 4% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Demond SmithOF·22y·S/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#168 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Bill Bavasi net −$5.6M net -0.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $7M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1995 odds 63% → 62% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Aldrete1B/OF·34y·L/L

+$0.4M+$0.4M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.