SFG⇄PIT

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$12.0M net +3.6

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $16M expected surplus · −$12.0M realized received 2.9 ± 2 expected · 3.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2009 odds 26% → 26% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Freddy Sanchez2B·31y·R/R

+$13.2M+$13.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 2.9± 2 exp WARrealized 3.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.52/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net +$12.0M net -3.6

received +$26.4M+$26.4M ± $49M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.9 ± 6 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2009 odds 1% → 1% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim Alderson#45P·20y·R/R

+$26.2M+$26.2M± $49M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.9± 6 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #45.0 prospect (Baseball America #45 (2009)) → 0.65/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.65/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.