OAK⇄DET

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$6.4M net +1.7

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $17M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2011 odds 2% → 2% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott Sizemore2B/3B·26y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

#142 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.05/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$6.4M net -1.7

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2011 odds 54% → 43% (-10.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David PurceyP·29y·L/L

+$4.9M+$4.9M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#16 overall draft pick → 0.47/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.65 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.