MIA⇄COL

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net +$9.6M net +2.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $25M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1997 odds 21% → 27% (+5.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Craig Counsell2B/3B/SS·26y·L/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

#319 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Bob Gebhard net −$9.6M net -2.4

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $25M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.8 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 1997 odds 9% → 7% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark HuttonP·27y·R/R

+$10.7M+$10.7M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.8± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.