ANA⇄LAD

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net +$62.4M net +4.7

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$56.8M realized received 2.3 ± 2 expected · 8.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2015 odds 7% → 6% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andrew HeaneyP·24y·L/L

+$14.0M+$14.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$56.8M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 8.1

Prior

#9 overall draft pick → 0.77/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.4/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Ned Colletti net −$62.4M net -4.7

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $11M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 2.6 ± 1 expected · 3.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2015 odds 82% → 85% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Howie Kendrick2B·31y·R/R

+$8.3M+$8.3M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 2.6± 1 exp WARrealized 3.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.6/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

2.55/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.