COL⇄ARI

COLCOL Gary Hughes net +$11.2M net +0.8

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 1999 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Belvani Martinez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net −$11.2M net -0.8

received −$6.4M−$6.4M ± $9M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 1999 odds 85% → 85% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Lenny Harris3B·34y·L/R

−$6.2M−$6.2M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.