PHI⇄MIA

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net +$20.0M net +0.0

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $23M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Billy McMillonOF·25y·L/L

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

#239 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$20.0M net +0.0

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 3.1 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Darren DaultonC·35y·L/R

+$9.2M+$8.5M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 3.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.8/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

2.17/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.