PIT⇄SEA

PITPIT Larry Doughty net +$27.2M net +2.7

received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $30M expected surplus · +$11.2M realized received 3.5 ± 4 expected · 3.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1988 odds 32% → 28% (-4.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Glenn WilsonOF·29y·R/R

+$17.8M+$17.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$11.2M 3.5± 4 exp WARrealized 3.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.20/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Dick Balderson net −$27.2M net -2.7

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $30M expected surplus · −$16.0M realized received 1.6 ± 4 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1988 odds 7% → 9% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Darnell Coles3B/OF·26y·R/R

+$4.2M+$4.2M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$16.0M 1.6± 4 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.