SDP⇄ANA

SDPSDP Joe McIlvaine net +$2.4M net +1.1

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $15M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 2.6 ± 2 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1991 odds 20% → 24% (+4.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jack Howell3B·29y·L/R

+$6.8M+$6.8M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 2.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.31/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Mike Port net −$2.4M net -1.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $24M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1991 odds 4% → 3% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shawn AbnerOF·25y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.9/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

-0.73/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.