LAD⇄DET

LADLAD Dan Evans net +$5.6M net +1.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2004 odds 62% → 65% (+3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cody RossOF·23y·R/L

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#117 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$5.6M net -1.1

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.8 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2004 odds 13% → 11% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve ColyerP·25y·L/L

+$5.1M+$5.1M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

#83 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.