SFG⇄PHI

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net +$2.4M net +0.2

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2009 odds 25% → 26% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ronny PaulinoC·28y·R/R

+$5.8M+$5.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.77/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ruben Amaro net −$2.4M net -0.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2009 odds 66% → 65% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jack TaschnerP·31y·L/L

−$0.4M−$0.4M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.51 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.