WSN⇄NYY

WSNWSN Dave Dombrowski net −$0.8M net +1.1

received +$34.4M+$34.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 3.6 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1989 odds 12% → 12% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John CandelariaP·35y·L/L

+$34.2M+$34.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 3.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.6/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

2.28/yr blended

Horizon

1.7 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Bob Quinn net +$0.8M net -1.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · -1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1989 odds 10% → 10% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Blowers3B·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -1.2

Prior

#252 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.