STL⇄ATL

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$180.8M net +47.5

received +$16.0M+$16.0M ± $39M expected surplus · +$321.6M realized received 4.7 ± 5 expected · 57.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2004 odds 97% → 88% (-9.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam WainwrightP·22y·R/R

+$12.2M+$12.2M± $36M exp surplusrealized +$296.0M 3.4± 4 exp WARrealized 52.6

Prior

Composite #49.0 prospect (Baseball America #49 (2004)) → 0.61/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ray KingP·30y·L/L

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.41/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.83 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jason MarquisP·25y·L/R

+$1.7M+$1.7M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$28.0M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 4.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL John Schuerholz net −$180.8M net -47.5

received +$45.6M+$17.6M ± $24M expected surplus · +$140.8M realized received 5.3 ± 3 expected · 10.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2004 odds 32% → 70% (+38.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

J. D. DrewOF·28y·L/R

+$43.6M+$22.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$131.2M 3.9± 2 exp WARrealized 8.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.34/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.0/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

2.63/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Eli MarreroC/OF·30y·R/R

+$2.3M−$4.8M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.94/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.