NYY⇄NYM

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$10.4M net +5.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$10.4M realized received 4.1 ± 2 expected · 5.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2002 odds 93% → 97% (+4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Robin Ventura3B·34y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$10.4M 4.1± 2 exp WARrealized 5.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.0/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.82/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$10.4M net -5.0

received +$19.2M+$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.4 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2002 odds 16% → 7% (-8.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David JusticeOF·36y·L/L

+$19.4M+$1.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

2.18/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.