SFG⇄CIN

SFGSFG Tom Haller net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $42M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Bob BuchananP·25y·L/L

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Bill Bergesch net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.6 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Colin WardP·25y·L/L

+$3.8M+$3.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.