NYY⇄BAL

NYYNYY Bob Quinn net +$14.4M net +3.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $28M expected surplus · +$12.8M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · 3.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1989 odds 11% → 10% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John HabyanP·25y·R/R

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$12.8M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized 3.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Roland Hemond net −$14.4M net -3.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $29M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1989 odds 8% → 9% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Stan JeffersonOF·26y·B/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

-0.17/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.