DET⇄NYY

DETDET Joe McDonald net +$24.0M net +3.6

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$20.8M realized received 0.4 ± 3 expected · 3.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1991 odds 28% → 37% (+9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark LeiterP·28y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$20.8M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized 3.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Gene Michael net −$24.0M net -3.6

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $38M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.4 ± 5 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1991 odds 4% → 3% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Torey Lovullo2B·25y·B/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.4± 5 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#131 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.