MIL⇄SFG

MILMIL David Stearns net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2019 odds 20% → 20% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

C.J. Hinojosa2B·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#336 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Farhan Zaidi net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2019 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Erik KratzC·39y·R/R

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.65/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.