ATL⇄CHC

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$4.0M net +0.8

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $38M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 2.3 ± 5 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2004 odds 66% → 70% (+4.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan CruzP·25y·R/R

+$8.5M+$8.5M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 2.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

Composite #6.0 pedigree (Baseball America #6 (2002)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed → 0.38/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Steve SmythP·26y·L/L

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#140 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.0/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net −$4.0M net -0.8

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $38M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.1 ± 5 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2004 odds 84% → 81% (-2.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Richard Lewis2B·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#40 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Andy PrattP·24y·L/L

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.8± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#263 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.3/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.