CHC⇄NYY

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net +$16.8M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2005 odds 21% → 24% (+3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin BergP·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#1290 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$16.8M net -0.4

received −$9.6M−$10.4M ± $14M expected surplus · −$20.8M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2005 odds 13% → 11% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt LawtonOF·33y·L/R

−$9.8M−$10.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$20.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.84/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.