SFG⇄LAD

SFGSFG Tom Haller net +$8.0M net +3.8

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 1.6 ± 4 expected · 5.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1986 odds 40% → 41% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Candy MaldonadoOF·25y·R/R

+$7.0M+$7.0M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.6± 4 exp WARrealized 5.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Al Campanis net −$8.0M net -3.8

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1986 odds 5% → 5% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex TreviñoC·28y·R/R

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.