TEX⇄OAK

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net +$91.2M net +1.9

received +$25.6M+$25.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$54.4M realized received 5.3 ± 2 expected · 3.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1992 odds 15% → 13% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José CansecoDH/OF·27y·R/R

+$25.5M+$25.5M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$54.4M 5.3± 2 exp WARrealized 3.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.3/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

3.56/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net −$91.2M net -1.9

received +$8.8M−$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · −$145.6M realized received 8.6 ± 3 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1992 odds 41% → 45% (+4.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rubén SierraOF·26y·B/R

+$11.2M+$11.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$120.8M 4.9± 2 exp WARrealized -3.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.5/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

3.25/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Bobby WittP·28y·R/R

+$7.0M+$7.0M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 3.1± 2 exp WARrealized 4.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.51/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

2.08/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Jeff RussellP·30y·R/R

−$9.0M−$20.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$14.4M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.