PIT⇄MIL

PITPIT Larry Doughty net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Lou ThorntonDH/OF·26y·L/R

−$1.2M−$1.2M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Harry Dalton net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $44M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 6 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Rubén RodríguezC·24y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $44M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 6 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#523 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.