NYM⇄PHI

NYMNYM Joe McIlvaine net +$3.2M net +0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1998 odds 9% → 10% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Héctor MercadoP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#349 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net −$3.2M net -0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $24M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1998 odds 5% → 4% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike WelchP·25y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

#80 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.