SEA⇄ARI

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$2.4M net +0.2

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $21M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2023 odds 73% → 74% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cooper HummelDH/OF·28y·B/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#531 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.2/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.43/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$2.4M net -0.2

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $46M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 4.0 ± 6 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2023 odds 13% → 12% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kyle LewisOF·27y·R/R

+$16.7M+$16.7M± $46M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 4.0± 6 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.43/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.99/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.