SFG⇄PIT

SFGSFG Al Rosen net −$1.6M net +1.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $14M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1989 odds 42% → 48% (+6.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ken Oberkfell2B/3B·33y·L/R

+$2.8M+$2.8M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Larry Doughty net +$1.6M net -1.2

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1989 odds 11% → 8% (-2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Roger SamuelsP·28y·L/L

−$2.6M−$2.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.60 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.