NYM⇄MIL

NYMNYM Frank Cashen net +$0.8M net +0.7

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $37M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.0 ± 5 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Josías ManzanilloP·25y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $37M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.0± 5 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Sal Bando net −$0.8M net -0.7

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Wayne HousieDH/OF·28y·B/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.68 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.