LAD⇄SEA

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Tyler GoughP·22y·S/R

+$1.9M+$1.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#276 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Robinson OrtizP·26y·L/L

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.