NYM⇄MIL

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $23M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2021 odds 24% → 26% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Billy McKinneyOF·26y·L/L

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.34/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL David Stearns net −$2.4M net -0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2021 odds 53% → 50% (-2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pedro Quintana

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.