ARI⇄NYM

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$6.4M net +0.0

received +$0.0M−$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2000 odds 34% → 30% (-4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bill PulsipherP·26y·L/L

+$0.3M−$0.4M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#66 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$6.4M net +0.0

received −$6.4M−$6.4M ± $8M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2000 odds 52% → 57% (+4.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Lenny Harris3B·35y·L/R

−$6.4M−$6.4M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.