SFG⇄TEX

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$1.6M net +0.0

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $25M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Cory BaileyP·26y·R/R

+$6.3M+$6.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#408 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net +$1.6M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Chad HartvigsonP·26y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#592 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.