ATL⇄KCR

ATLATL Bobby Cox net +$17.6M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $25M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1987 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Terry BellC·24y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR John Schuerholz net −$17.6M net -0.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $0M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1987 odds 19% → 20% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gene GarberP·39y·R/R

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$18.4M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.98/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.