PHI⇄ANA

PHIPHI Dave Dombrowski net +$84.8M net +8.8

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $57M expected surplus · +$84.8M realized received 3.1 ± 7 expected · 9.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2022 odds 67% → 71% (+3.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brandon MarshOF·24y·L/R

+$15.4M+$15.4M± $57M exp surplusrealized +$84.8M 3.1± 7 exp WARrealized 9.7

Prior

Composite #45.0 pedigree (Baseball America #38 (2021) / MLB Pipeline #52 (2021)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.56/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Perry Minasian net −$84.8M net -8.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2022 odds 4% → 4% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Logan O'HoppeC·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

#677 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.