COL⇄NYM

COLCOL Bob Gebhard net −$5.6M net +0.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · 3.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 1997 odds 6% → 7% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jerry DipotoP·29y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 3.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.31/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Joe McIlvaine net +$5.6M net -0.9

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $15M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1997 odds 18% → 17% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Armando ReynosoP·31y·R/R

+$10.0M+$10.0M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.85/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.