TEX⇄CHW

TEXTEX John Hart net +$39.2M net +3.3

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $38M expected surplus · +$10.4M realized received 3.7 ± 5 expected · 4.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2003 odds 8% → 5% (-2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anthony WebsterCF·20y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#463 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Frank FranciscoP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$13.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 4.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Josh RupeP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#90 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$39.2M net -3.3

received −$18.4M−$18.4M ± $16M expected surplus · −$28.8M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2003 odds 61% → 70% (+8.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carl EverettOF·32y·B/R

−$18.2M−$18.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$28.8M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.22/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.