HOU⇄BAL

HOUHOU Bill Wood net +$4.0M net +0.6

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $42M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.7 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1989 odds 8% → 7% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carl NicholsC·26y·R/R

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $42M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.7± 5 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Roland Hemond net −$4.0M net -0.6

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1989 odds 8% → 9% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Vic Hithe

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Dave JohnsonP·29y·R/R

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.46 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.