ANA⇄TEX

ANAANA Bill Bavasi net +$2.4M net +0.1

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1998 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Bell3B·23y·R/R

+$6.8M+$6.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#30 overall draft pick → 0.39/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net −$2.4M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1998 odds 74% → 72% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt PerishoP·23y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#75 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.