COL⇄LAD

COLCOL Josh Byrnes net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Landyn VidourekOF·22y·L/R

+$1.9M+$1.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Nick FrassoP·27y·R/R

+$0.4M+$0.4M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#106 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.61 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$0.8M net -0.2

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $13M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Seth HalvorsenP·26y·R/R

−$3.2M−$3.2M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#202 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.00/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.83 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.