COL⇄SEA

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$40.8M net +6.4

received −$6.4M−$6.4M ± $38M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 0.8 ± 5 expected · 6.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2002 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José PaniaguaP·28y·R/R

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Denny StarkP·27y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized -1.2

Prior

#117 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Brian FuentesP·26y·L/L

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$16.8M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 7.7

Prior

#678 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Pat Gillick net −$40.8M net -6.4

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $19M expected surplus · −$32.8M realized received 4.4 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2002 odds 85% → 89% (+3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff Cirillo3B·32y·R/R

+$6.3M+$6.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$32.8M 4.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.2/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.98/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.