HOU⇄NYY

HOUHOU Bill Wood net +$6.4M net +1.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Orlando MillerSS·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Hardy Peterson net −$6.4M net -1.2

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $43M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.4 ± 5 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Dave Silvestri3B·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#52 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Daven BondP·26y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#354 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.