NYY⇄NYM

NYYNYY Gene Michael net −$5.6M net +0.2

received −$8.0M−$8.0M ± $0M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1993 odds 67% → 68% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Frank TananaP·39y·L/L

−$7.8M−$7.8M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

1.10/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Frank Cashen net +$5.6M net -0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1993 odds 3% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kenny GreerP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#261 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.