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January 5, 2021

TEX⇄TBR

TEX won this trade +$81.6M surplus TEX won this trade +11.0 WAR
TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$81.6M net +11.0
received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $35M expected surplus · +$80.0M realized received 4.2 ± 4 expected · 10.8 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2021 odds 0% → 0% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Nathaniel Lowe1B·25y·L/R
+$2.7M+$2.7M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$80.0M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 10.8
Prior
#390 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.6/yr over 0.4 season
Talent
0.30/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Carl ChesterOF·25y·R/R
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#349 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
Jake Guenther1B·24y·L/L
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#218 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
TBRTBR Erik Neander net −$81.6M net -11.0
received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $29M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2021 odds 91% → 86% (-4.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Heriberto HernandezOF·21y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Osleivis Basabe2B/SS·20y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Alexander Ovalles
+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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