CLE⇄CHC

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$1.6M net +2.0

received +$8.0M−$3.2M ± $14M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 2.8 ± 2 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2009 odds 1% → 2% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark DeRosa2B/3B·34y·R/R

+$7.8M−$3.5M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.9/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

1.97/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net −$1.6M net -2.0

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $38M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 3.6 ± 5 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2009 odds 16% → 12% (-3.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff StevensP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

#182 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Chris ArcherP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#161 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

John GaubP·24y·R/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#641 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.