CHW⇄TEX

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$19.2M net +2.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 3.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2013 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Leury GarcíaOF·22y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 3.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$19.2M net -2.1

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $11M expected surplus · −$17.6M realized received 1.7 ± 1 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2013 odds 42% → 46% (+4.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex RíosOF·32y·R/R

+$12.5M+$12.5M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$17.6M 1.7± 1 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.69/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.