NYY⇄MIA

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2020 odds 37% → 41% (+3.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

James Nelson3B·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#443 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Michael Hill net −$1.6M net -0.2

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $17M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2020 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Stephen TarpleyP·27y·R/L

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#98 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.