STL⇄SFG

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$24.0M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2001 odds 62% → 61% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin JosephP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#178 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$24.0M net -0.3

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$25.6M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2001 odds 79% → 80% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason ChristiansenP·31y·R/L

−$4.6M−$4.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$25.6M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.